Threat of Material Injury is one of three statutory injury findings under 19 U.S.C. § 1677(7) that can support the imposition of antidumping or countervailing duties — alongside present material injury and material retardation of the establishment of an industry.
A threat determination requires the USITC to find that material injury to the domestic industry is likely in the "reasonably foreseeable future." The determination must be based on evidence of an imminent threat, not on conjecture or speculation. Specific factors include:
- Significant rate of increase in import volume or market penetration indicating a likelihood of substantially increased imports
- Sufficient freely disposable production capacity in the exporting country (or imminent capacity increases) indicating likely substantial increases in exports
- Inventory levels of the subject merchandise
- Likely price effects (depression or suppression) of imminent imports
- Actual and potential negative effects on existing development and production efforts, including R&D
- Any other demonstrable adverse trends
Threat determinations are most commonly made when imports are ramping but haven't yet driven the domestic industry into measurable injury — Commerce typically still imposes duties at the same level as in a present-injury case. The substantive standard is set out in the WTO AD Agreement Article 3.7 and the SCM Agreement Article 15.7.
Threat-only determinations are relatively rare; most affirmative injury findings involve present material injury, sometimes coupled with threat.